Toronto Holds Its Ground: October Prices Firm Up in the City While the Suburbs Slide

If you've spent the fall waiting on the sidelines for a clearer signal, October gave you one, and it depends on where you're looking. Home sales fell 7.9% to 5,603 and new listings fell 11.9% to 14,173, but the average price slipped only 2.7%, a much smaller drop than September's 5.1%. Inside those numbers, Toronto prices held up better than the suburbs on all four major property types.

TRREB says uncertainty around inflation, borrowing costs and the economy kept many buyers on the sidelines in October. On a seasonally adjusted basis, though, sales and new listings were both up from September, and the average price and the MLS® Home Price Index Composite edged up too. The HPI Composite benchmark was down 4.3% year over year, compared with 4.7% in September.

If the waiting has felt like a guessing game, you're not alone. Most people only buy or sell every several years, so the market never gets familiar. Each month we read the whole report so you don't have to, and this month the useful part is the split between the city and the suburbs.

October 2026 at a Glance

• Home sales: 5,603, down 7.9% year over year (October 2025: 6,083)
• New listings: 14,173, down 11.9% (October 2025: 16,080)
• Active listings: 25,098, down 10.0% (October 2025: 27,899)
• Average selling price: $1,024,108, down 2.7% (October 2025: $1,052,539)
• MLS® HPI Composite: down 4.3% year over year
• Sales-to-new-listings ratio: 39.5% (sales divided by new listings), up from 37.8% a year ago
• Average listing days on market: 31, the same as a year ago. Average days on market including relistings: 49, versus 50
• Months of inventory: 4.6, with homes selling at an average of 97% of list price

The ratio looks far higher than September's 30.5%, but that is mostly the calendar: last October it was 37.8% against 28.7% the September before. What matters is the gap to last year, which held at about 1.7 points, almost the same as September's 1.8. In plain terms, roughly four in ten new listings found a buyer this October, supply is shrinking a little faster than demand, and homes closed at 97% of asking, so buyers kept some room to negotiate.

One note before the property types: average prices move with the mix of homes that sell in a given month, so treat one month's change as a signal, not a verdict.

Detached Homes: Toronto Recovers the Ground It Lost in September

Detached homes accounted for 2,693 sales, 48.1% of all GTA transactions, at an average price of $1,310,627 (down 3.2%). Sales were down 4.4% overall.

• City of Toronto (416): 741 sales, up 0.5%. Average price $1,603,886, down 1.2%
• Suburbs (905): 1,952 sales, down 6.2%. Average price $1,199,303, down 4.7%

Insight: In July and August the 416 detached market was holding up best, and in September its price fell 7.6%. We wondered whether Toronto sellers were meeting buyers on price to keep deals moving. October does not support that as a trend. The 416 price decline narrowed to 1.2%, and Toronto sales edged up while the suburbs fell 6.2%. September looks like a one-month dip, not a change of direction. Toronto held up better than the suburbs on both price and sales.

Semi-Detached: The City-Suburb Gap Is the Widest on the Report

Semi-detached homes recorded 546 sales at an average price of $1,024,907, down 0.8% year over year. Sales were down 8.1%.

• City of Toronto (416): 266 sales, up 1.5%. Average price $1,225,229, up 0.5%
• Suburbs (905): 280 sales, down 15.7%. Average price $834,602, down 5.9%

Insight: In July we flagged Toronto semis as an opportunity, with prices down 9.9% year over year. The decline narrowed to 1.8% in August, turned into a 2.1% gain in September, and is still a gain at 0.5% in October. That is two months in a row of Toronto semi prices above last year. Sales tell the same story: up 1.5% in the city against a 15.7% drop in the suburbs, the widest city-versus-suburb sales gap of any property type this month. Buyers who acted on that July flag have seen the discount close.

Townhouses: Toronto Prices Jump While Sales Stay Slow

Townhouses posted 933 sales at an average price of $804,416, down 5.0%. Sales fell 11.0%, the steepest drop of the four major types.

• City of Toronto (416): 217 sales, down 13.2%. Average price $927,804, up 4.2%
• Suburbs (905): 716 sales, down 10.3%. Average price $767,021, down 7.9%

Insight: In September we described a standoff in Toronto townhouses: fewer deals, but sellers not cutting, with the price down just 0.8%. October pushes that further. The 416 price is now up 4.2%, the biggest gain on the report, while sales are still down 13.2%. In the suburbs it is the opposite: townhouse prices fell 7.9%, the steepest price drop of any of the eight segments. Townhouses are also still the exception to the sales pattern, with Toronto falling slightly harder than the suburbs. Fewer deals at higher prices in the city is what sellers holding firm looks like.

Condo Apartments: Still No Bottom in Toronto, but the Suburbs Improve

Condo apartments recorded 1,385 sales, 24.7% of the market, at an average price of $621,400, down 5.8%. Sales were down 10.4%.

• City of Toronto (416): 949 sales, down 10.7%. Average price $659,214, down 5.6%
• Suburbs (905): 436 sales, down 9.7%. Average price $539,094, down 6.1%

Insight: In July, a 1.6% decline in 416 condo prices looked like a bottom forming. It was 2.1% in August, 6.1% in September, and 5.6% in October, so the call was early and the floor has still not been confirmed. What did change is the suburbs: the 905 condo price decline halved, from 12.0% in September to 6.1%, which closes the gap with Toronto to half a point. The weaker number is volume. Toronto condo sales fell 10.7%, nearly double September's 5.5%. Condo buyers still have leverage, and the suburbs are no longer the weak spot they were a month ago.

The Economic Backdrop

Real GDP grew 3.3% in the second quarter on an annualized basis, and Toronto employment grew 2.1% in September. The Toronto unemployment rate was 6.9% and inflation ran at 3.1% year over year. The Bank of Canada overnight rate is now 2.5%, up from 2.3% a month ago, and prime is 4.5%. Mortgage rates are 5.49% for 1 year, 6.05% for 3 years and 6.19% for 5 years, the 5-year up from 6.09% in September.

TRREB President Daniel Steinfeld pointed to what could change the mood: "If a Canada-U.S. trade deal is reached, GTA residents could gain a clearer picture of the economic outlook. Combined with a resolution to the conflict in the Middle East, this could help ease concerns about inflation and economic uncertainty, strengthen consumer confidence and renew interest in homeownership as we move into 2027."

Chief Information Officer Jason Mercer addressed affordability: "GTA homebuyers continued to benefit from substantial negotiating power on price over the past year. While borrowing costs have increased on the back of higher inflation, the impact on monthly mortgage payments has been mitigated by lower selling prices, helping keep affordability in check."

And CEO John DiMichele looked to supply: "While we continue to experience shorter-term volatility in the ownership housing market, we can't lose track of the fact that the permanent population will continue to grow in our region. Policy announcements, including HST rebates and development charge reductions should help bring a greater diversity of ownership and rental supply online in the medium-term to ensure new families are properly and affordably housed."

What This Means for You

If You're Buying

You've been waiting for a clearer signal, and the one in this report is that the answer depends on where you shop. Prices are still 2.7% below last year, homes closed at 97% of list and there are 4.6 months of inventory, so there is room to negotiate. But Toronto semis and townhouses are firming while suburban townhouses and condos are still soft, so your leverage is bigger in the 905 than in the city. Get pre-approved at today's rates (the 5-year is 6.19%), see which areas make your number work, and negotiate from the data for the segment you actually want.

If You're Selling

There are 11.9% fewer competing listings than last October, and 7.9% fewer buyers. If you own a semi or townhouse in Toronto, the market is currently on your side, with prices above last year. If you're selling in the suburbs, every property type was priced below last year, so the homes that sell are priced to the current market from day one. Waiting for a better month has a cost too, because the buyers who are active are comparing every listing.

If You're Investing

Be selective. The 416 condo market has not shown a floor in four months, while suburban townhouses and condos, down 7.9% and 6.1%, are where the biggest discounts sit. Toronto townhouses, up 4.2%, have already moved. The opportunity is in negotiating well on the weakest segments, not in calling a bottom.

Where do you want to be by spring?

Most people only move every several years, so none of this is familiar, and that's fine. Here's how we make it simple: 1. Tell me your goal and your timeline. 2. I show you the numbers for your property type and your street, including what it really costs to carry. 3. You decide with a plan, not a guess. Without one, the biggest purchase or sale of your life becomes guesswork. With one, you know your number before you walk through a door. Call 416-886-2000 to book a call, or email [email protected] and I'll send you a one-page snapshot of your area.

Ali Bolourchi Real Estate Team

Phone: 416-886-2000

Email: [email protected]

Websites: ali.realtor | GTALuxuryHomes.ca | The4Sale.com

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Market Watch, October 2026. Statistics reflect all TRREB areas. Months of inventory and sale-to-list figures are from page 3 of the report. Sales-to-new-listings ratio is calculated as sales divided by new listings. This article is for information purposes only and is not intended to solicit buyers or sellers currently under contract with a brokerage.